It’s hard to imagine what the Kathmandu valley will look like 5 years from now. Even annual visitors to the valley say they can’t recognize areas of the city from one visit to the next. This unplanned urban expansion poses many threats to the valley: to infrastructure buckling under pressure, to the environment, and to the traditional Nepali way of life. The dangers associated with such rapid construction are only compounded when we consider that few of the buildings are properly constructed to withstand earthquakes. A mega earthquake hits Kathmandu every 100 or so years, resulting from the release of tension that slowly builds up due to the subduction and collision of the Indian and Eurasian plates. The real question is what will happen to the majority of earthquake susceptible buildings when the next big quake happens. Considering that almost any building from the international airport, to houses, schools and hospitals are likely to be razed in the next big quake, the future looks bleak. Walking around Kathmandu, you can almost tell which ones are going to come tumbling down.
Slim and slender are common characteristics of houses in Kathmandu. Neither trait is very earthquake proof.
This style is likely a result of the fragmentation of family property, subsequently becoming smaller each generation.
Two new houses dwarfing a traditional one. Even if the older home could survive, the toppling of the toothpicks in the event of an earthquake would more than likely destroy the smaller building as well.
This house’s first floor is already buckling under gravity. An earthquake would easily raze it.
Bracing whole buildings is an all too common sight in Kathmandu.
Toothpick style buildings are commonly demolished as well. I wouldn’t want to be around when this brace is removed or falls.
Water tank “pedestals” are not only ugly, they also pose a huge threat during and after an earthquake. You may escape being in the path of a falling tank, but how will you survive without any water?
The construction of new water tank terraces can be found almost anywhere.
The newest attractions are the 10 to 20 story “high rise” buildings beginning to dot the valley floor. Even if these high-rises are structurally sound they could topple over when the soil of the former lakebed liquefies in an earthquake.
But all is not lost. There is growing public awareness about earthquakes, and communities are starting to get together to prepare and pre-position relief materials. Nepal's international donors are also working together to back preparedness and response, especially in retrofitting schools and hospitals. At this point, I believe that increasing awareness in the general public about earthquake preparedness could be one of Nepal's best strategies. Although many buildings will most likely go in a mega quake, an effective post quake plan could very likely help save thousands of lives. The timing of the next big quake is uncertain: it may be tomorrow, or it may be 20 years in the future. One thing that is certain, however, is that being prepared is something Nepal cannot afford to put off any longer.
The photos you see here, as well as a slew of additional ones, are available for viewing and downloading on flickr.
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